The Antarctic region, on the opposite pole, is protected by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) that prevents any similar warm water intrusions and therefore, considered a better indicator for predicting long term consequences of climate change.
Second, why Antarctica ice cover is growing might have a better explanation in the strong polar winds that have become much stronger than previously recorded observations. These strong westerly winds have a converging impact that shoves the sea ice together which also explains the symmetrical growth in ice cover at the South Pole (see image of Antarctica on previous page). Arctic, on the other hand is exposed to strong winds that blow ice out into the sea.
The Climate Link
Despite the above arguments, ice gain in Antarctic is far less than the loss of Arctic ice – which indicates that there is a net loss of ice cover on the planet. This seems to indicate that there is no slowdown in the global warming phenomenon – contrary to claims made by climate skeptics.
Also, despite harsher winters, each summer, the Antarctic ice shrinks more rapidly than Arctic ice. Is this a warning signal? A slight upward shift in temperature at the South Pole can melt more ice even faster.
It may be premature to infer that the Arctic sea ice recovery is a perfect recovery. This recovery, can be a short-term recovery, and can be attributed to the cloudy summer season which reduced the amount of solar radiation falling in the Arctic region. The new ice sheets are thin and susceptible to quick melting in the next summer season. A good recovery would be indicated by an ice sheet that is thick and resilient to solar radiation.
The most likely conclusion can be drawn is that there is net loss of ice cover at the poles, the antarctic ice is more susceptible to a warming climate and arctic ice recovery in 2013 may not be a perfect recovery.
How bad is a fast melting Arctic?
We know that Arctic ice melt itself is not going to raise the sea levels simply because it is already floating on water and has already displaced an equivalent amount of water. Melting will just change its state without any addition to volume.
But we have to worry about it because the key concern lies in the fact that once Arctic ice melts, water will absorb more solar radiation which will lead to warming of oceans. Since warm water expands, it will increase in volume leading to rise in sea levels.
Also, melting of ice will accelerate the warming of Arctic region which can lead to melting of ice on Greenland – which would be a cause for alarm as this would be an additional volume that gets into seas. Such an event will have the potential to raise sea levels and cause flooding in low lying coastal areas.
Is a colder and expanding Antarctic good?
If Antarctic region is taken as a better indicator of climate change impacts, then the growing ice cover would imply that there is negligible (or zero) impact of global warming. But before reaching this conclusion, there would be some more questions that need to be answered – What influence will a colder Antarctic have on weather patterns across the globe? What is the nature of Antarctic ice? and Is it resilient to drastic changes in climate?.
The anomalous weather at the poles indicates that our understanding of climate change phenomena is not yet comprehensive. There are many questions that need valid explanations.
Climate change can give rise to new weather patterns which can explain the new extremes. However, it may be a daunting task to construct climate models that can predict how the different weather systems would interact with each other in future. Such anomalous scenarios are more likely to prevail, that will frequently question the explanatory power of climate science and further delay meaningful action.
This post is part of “Climate Watch Series” that traces emerging climate change impacts to unravel and question the science behind them. If you have alternate views, you are welcome to write to us at editor@thinktosustain.com or post in the comment box below.
