Changes in Climate Trends Impacting Livelihoods and Food Security in Sahel and West Africa

“This cooperation between the international community and CILSS represents a milestone in taking large-scale action jointly – in particular the production of scientific knowledge that will lead to a better understanding of climate change impacts on migration and conflict in this very fragile Sahelian region – for the benefit of the population,” Prof. Bretaudeau said.

“The relationship between climate change, migration and conflict remains complex, however, with climate change threatening the integrity of ecosystems that are already made vulnerable by a rapidly growing population, it is evident that this situation will exacerbate competition over natural resources and trigger further movements of people and new conflicts,” he said.

Prof. Jakob Rhyner, Vice Rector of the United Nations University, added “Especially as the relation between climate change and migration is very complex, we need to further assess the hotspots area.” Speaking at the report launch in Durban, he continued, “We have to provide negotiators, governments as well as practitioners on the ground, what they need to know about the potential impacts of climate change and human mobility in order to prepare appropriate legal, institutional, and governance approaches.”

The project set out to analyze the historical climate trends in the region, identify ‘hotspots’ and determine the potential implications for natural resource led livelihoods, building on existing knowledge that the Sahel has long been subject to considerable climate variability unrelated to anthropogenic climate change.

The study also concluded that migration can be seen as part of the solution, as seasonal and circular migration can be considered as a traditional adaptation strategy in the region. Many communities are already planning for the potential impacts of climate change and are employing innovative small-scale adaptation initiatives, such as cooperation between villages in the sustainable use of local land.

Importantly, the report provides recommendations for improving conflict and migration sensitivity in adaptation planning, investments and policies across the region.

The Key Recommendations include:

• Adopt climate change adaptation policies and programmes that are migration and conflict-sensitive and that aim to reduce livelihood vulnerability, promote alternatives, and improve the availability and access to natural resources. This should be done in order to mitigate the drivers of migration and conflict and help secure development gains.
• Promote regional environmental cooperation in addressing climate change, migration and conflict. Issues of climate change and migration are regional in nature, and as such should not only be managed at the national level, as is most commonly the case today.
• Root national adaptation policies in the “green economy” and promote the creation of green jobs and sustainable farming practices, in order to enhance food security and increase the resilience to climate stressors.
• Strengthen preventive action, environmental diplomacy, resource rights and dispute resolution to take early action to defuse both imminent threats and broader instability.
• Prioritize systematic data collection and early warning systems. The systematic collection of climate data should be established and improved throughout the region, notably through the establishment of a comprehensive network of weather stations.
• Use conflict and/or migration risk to prioritize investments and build donor commitment to long-term engagement in the Sahel. Addressing climate change impacts on livelihoods in the Sahel requires long-term financial commitment and improved coordination of investments.
• Conduct follow-up field assessments in the hotspots identified using a livelihoods approach to determine how resource availability is changing, how livelihoods are being affected, and if incidences of conflict or migration are increasing, in order to inform adaptation strategies and interventions.

The study aims to support decision-makers in the region’s Member States, adaptation and peace-building practitioners worldwide, as well as ongoing international climate change negotiations.

Notes:

The nine Sahelian countries represented by CILSS – Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, the Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal – determined the core geographical scope of the study. However, given the trans-boundary nature of climate change, as well as migratory patterns and economic trade in these countries, eight neighbouring members of the Economic Commission of West African States (ECOWAS) – Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Togo – were also included.

The maps were produced by the University of Salzburg’s Centre for Geoinformatics (Z_GIS) in Austria. The mapping approach used the best available data and analyzed regional trends in temperature, rainfall, droughts and flooding over time. Coastal areas vulnerable to inundation based on potential sea-level rise were also mapped. Calculated using data contained on the maps was the land area and the percentage of the population in CILSS countries affected by the four climate indicators. Included on each of the maps are two additional layers showing population trends and large-scale conflict occurrences during the same time periods.

Two synthesis maps combine the data to identify 19 “hotspots.” One map depicts the areas where the most ‘extreme’ changes have taken place in the four individual climate indicators, while the other map shows the areas affected by the most ‘cumulative’ change over the past 40 years.

Source: UNEP.