The leaders were generous on words and promises drafting the climate change-related paragraphs of the Seoul Document. On Fossil Fuel Subsidies, a clear and straight-forward measure that could help accelerate the transition to a low carbon economy, they approved the following statement:
“Fossil Fuel Subsidies: We reaffirm our commitment to rationalize and phase-out over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, with timing based on national circumstances, while providing targeted support for the poorest. We direct our Finance and Energy Ministers to report back on the progress made in implementing country-specific strategies and in achieving the goals to which we agreed in Pittsburgh and Toronto at the 2011 Summit in France.”
From The Seoul Summit Document: Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth
“Medium term” and “timing based on national circumstances” give any country a legitimate exit option based on the subjective interpretation of “medium” and “circumstances”. Chance of achievement – near ZERO.
Here’s what they said about climate change and the low carbon economy:
“Climate Change and Green Growth: Addressing the threat of global climate change is an urgent priority for all nations. We reiterate our commitment to take strong and action-oriented measures and remain fully dedicated to UN climate change negotiations. We reaffirm the objective, provisions, and the principles of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. We thank Mexico for hosting the UNFCCC negotiations to be held in Cancun beginning at the end of November 2010. Those of us who have associated with the Copenhagen Accord reaffirm our support for it and its implementation. We all are committed to achieving a successful, balanced result that includes the core issues of mitigation, transparency, finance, technology, adaptation, and forest preservation. In this regard, we welcome the work of the High-Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing established by the UN Secretary-General and ask our Finance Ministers to consider its report. We also support and encourage the delivery of fast-start finance commitments.
The ongoing loss of biodiversity is a global environmental and economic challenge. Both climate change and loss of biodiversity are inextricably linked. We acknowledge the outcomes of the global study on the economics of ecosystems and biodiversity. We welcome the successful conclusion of COP10 in Nagoya.
We are committed to support country-led green growth policies that promote environmentally sustainable global growth along with employment creation while ensuring energy access for the poor. We recognize that sustainable green growth, as it is inherently a part of sustainable development, is a strategy of quality development, enabling countries to leap-frog old technologies in many sectors, including through the use of energy efficiency and clean technology. To that end, we will take steps to create, as appropriate, the enabling environments that are conducive to the development and deployment of energy efficiency and clean energy technologies, including policies and practices in our countries and beyond, including technical transfer and capacity building.
We support the ongoing initiatives under the Clean Energy Ministerial and encourage further discussion on cooperation in R&D and regulatory measures, together with business leaders, and ask our Energy Experts Group to monitor and report back to us on progress at the 2011 Summit in France. We also commit to stimulate investment in clean energy technology, energy and resource efficiency, green transportation, and green cities by mobilizing finance, establishing clear and consistent standards, developing long-term energy policies, supporting education, enterprise and R&D, and continuing to promote cross-border collaboration and coordination of national legislative approaches.”
From The Seoul Summit Document: Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth
A mix of diplomatic literature and promises without any real action behind.
“We also support and encourage the delivery of fast-start finance commitments.” Fast-start finance was decided by these same leaders – with the exception of the U.K. Prime Minister – in Copenhagen, and was to be fully available in the beginning of this year. Nothing happened. Is it really the case to say that the leaders support and encourage its delivery? Isn’t it a matter of simply writing some checks?
The elements that might help us to make an educated guess about the likely outcome at Cancun are not in global summit communiqués or in what happened at UNFCCC’s preparatory meetings. We should look for them in the realm of domestic politics. The relevant question is whether there has been any significant change in the domestic political circumstances that might affect the major developed and emerging players’ attitude at the climate talks.
The answer is ‘yes’ for a handful of powerful players. In the U.S., President Obama has lost the majority in the House, barely managed to maintain a slim advantage in the Senate, and now leads a “divided government”. Congress is far more hostile to climate change policies than it was before when Obama wasn’t able to pull a clean energy bill.
In the U.K., the new coalition has imposed harmful budget cuts to the environment, climate change and scientific programs. I talked to a Cambridge professor who heads a low carbon economy program and he told me they’re loosing their best people and that he expects “a lot of change” for the worse because of the budget cuts. The director of a British private organization that provides consultancy and finance to business low carbon initiatives told me his company has also been hit by the cuts. They’re streamlining plans and loosing people.
The European Union is entangled in the fiscal and financial crises of many of its members. In France, President Sarkozy faces increasing social unrest. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel looses popularity and fights to keep her coalition together.
In Brazil, Lula da Silva’s former Chief of Staff, Dilma Rousseff, has been elected president. She master-minded the huge government investment program known as the “PAC” (Plan to Accelerate Growth). Almost every project in the program has a very high carbon footprint. In Copenhagen, as head of the Brazilian delegation, Minister Rousseff, now president-elect, had impeded the delegation to have an effective role in the negotiations.
