China and India Nullify Global Reduction in CO2 Emissions
In 2009, for the first time since 1992, there was no growth in global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel use, cement production and chemicals production. The recent credit crunch drove many industrialized economies into recession, particularly OECD countries and Russia, and led to a dramatic decrease in CO2 emissions of 7% in 2009 in these countries. This drop of 800 million tonnes in emissions has compensated for the continued strong increase in CO2 emissions in China and India of 9% and 6%, respectively. In the same year, emissions in other developing countries did not vary as much.
These preliminary estimates have been made by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) on the basis of energy data for 2008 and 2009 recently published by BP (British Petroleum) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). The estimates are also based on production data on cement, ammonia and steel and emissions per country up to 2005 from the joint EDGAR project of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL).
Essentially No Growth in Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel and Cement Production in 2009
After correction for the leap year 2008 and accounting for uncertainties in the data, total global emissions have essentially stabilized in 2009. Although arithmetically global emissions decreased slightly, the uncertainties estimated in the country trends and particularly in the difference of regions with growing and with decreasing emissions are such that we must conclude that the emissions have essentially stabilized in 2009. This compares with the six years since 2002 with average annual growth rates of 3.5%. In 2008, when the impacts of the credit crunch became visible, global emissions increased by about 1.5%.
This is the first time since the 1992 recession that global CO2 emissions have not increased. Previous recessions due to large increases in oil price led to global decreases in CO2 emissions in 1974-1975 and 1980-1982. In October 2009, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expected that global CO2 emissions would decrease by 2.6% in 2009. This would have been the largest drop in more than 40 years because the global recession froze economic activity and slashed energy use around the world.
However, the growth pattern has been sustained in China and India. This conclusion is based on EDGAR estimates for 1970 to 2005, IEA trends for 2006 and 2007, BP data 2007 to 2009, and other trends. This sustained growth has occurred regardless of the credit crunch that has affected most industrialized countries and is largely compensated for by the decreases calculated for the industrialized countries that have emission mitigation targets under the Kyoto Protocol.
The assessment excludes CO2 emissions from deforestation and logging, forest and peat fires, from post-burn decay of remaining above-ground biomass, and from decomposition of organic carbon in drained peat soils. The latter mostly affects developing countries. These sources could add as much as a further 20% to global CO2 emissions.
Large Regional Differences: China and India Jump by 9% and 6% while OECD Countries Plummet by 7%
The recession in OECD countries has led to large drops in output of heavy, energy-intensive industries such as steel and basic chemicals production, oil refineries and power generation. In Europe, CO2 emissions from industries regulated by the Emissions Trading Scheme fell by 11.6% and in the USA, industry emissions from fuel combustion fell by 11% and power generation by 9%. Total emissions in the European Union (EU-15) fell by 7% to 3.1 billion tonnes and in the USA by 7% to 5.3 billion tonnes. The total CO2 emissions in Japan and Russia fell by 11% to 1.2 billion tonnes and 9% to 1.6 billion tonnes, respectively. Total CO2 emissions fell by 7% in all industrialized countries with quantitative greenhouse gas mitigation targets under the Kyoto Protocol.
China and India
Since 2000, CO2 emissions in China have more than doubled, and in India have increased by more than half. Since the end of 2008, China, has been implementing a large economic stimulus package over a two-year period. This package includes investment in transport infrastructure and in rebuilding Sichuan communities devastated by the 2008 earthquake. In 2009, CO2 emissions jumped by 9% to 8.1 billion tonnes, even though China has doubled its installed wind and solar power capacity for the fifth year in a row. India, where domestic demand makes up three-quarters of the national economy, is relatively unaffected by the credit crunch. Emissions continued to increase in 2009 by 6% to 1.7 billion tonnes of CO2. India has now surpassed Russia as the fifth largest CO2 emitter.
Other Developing Countries
The picture is more diffuse in other developing countries, ranging from countries with increasing emissions such as Iran, Indonesia and South Korea, to those with decreasing emissions, such as Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Taiwan. In total, CO2 emissions in these countries changed very little in 2009.
