Landslides were the only natural disaster with a consistent positive influence on permanent migration. With every 1 percent increase in the number of deaths or destroyed houses in a family’s home province, the likelihood of permanent migration went up by only 0.0006 and 0.0004 percent, respectively.
The much higher influence of heat on permanent migration can be pinned on its effect on local economies and social structures, the researchers write. Previous research has shown that a one-degree change in the average growing-season temperature can reduce yields of certain crops by as much as 17 percent. At the same time, research conducted by Hsiang while at Princeton and published in 2013 showed a correlation between higher temperatures and social conflict such as civil wars, ethnic conflict and street crime.
In the current study, the researchers found that in Indonesia, a shift from 25 to 26 degrees Celsius resulted in a significant 14 to 15 percent decline in the value of household assets, for example. Precipitation did not have a notable affect on household worth, nor did natural disasters except landslides, which lowered assets by 5 percent for each 1 percent increase in the number of people who died.
The article, “Nonlinear Permanent Migration Response to Climatic Variations but Minimal Response to Disasters”, by Pratikshya Bohra-Mishra, Michael Oppenheimer and Solomon Hsiang, was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences online on June 23, 2014.
Check the following link to read/download the Full Study:
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/06/18/1317166111
Source: Princeton University.
