A Major Step Towards More Robust Assessments of Climate Impacts on Agriculture
There are still considerable uncertainties in future agricultural projections – such as the CO2 fertilization effect, availability of additional agricultural land, or future rates of productivity increase. Yet the AgMIP results are a major step forward towards more robust climate impact assessments for agriculture.
“Droughts like the one in 2012 in the United States can have huge impacts on crop production and exports,” Lotze-Campen says. “This illustrates that bad harvests in major production regions, even though limited in scope, can have significant impacts on global agricultural markets, prices and food security. This effect is likely to amplify under unabated climate change.”
Details of the Studies:
Lotze-Campen, H., von Lampe, M., Kyle, P., Fujimori, S., Havlík, P., van Meijl, H., Hasegawa, T., Popp, A., Schmitz, C., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Willenbockel, D., Wise, M. (2013): Impacts of Increased Bioenergy Demand on Global Food Markets: An AgMIP Economic Model Intercomparison. Agricultural Economics (early view/online) [doi:10.1111/agec12092]
Schmitz, C., van Meijl, H., Kyle, P., Nelson, G.D., Fujimori, S., Gurgel, A., Havlík, P., Heyhoe, E., Mason d’Croz, D., Popp, A., Sands, R., Tabeau, A., van der Mensbrugghe, D., von Lampe, M., Wise, M., Blanc, E., Hasegawa, T., Kavallari, A., Valin, H. (2013): Land Use Change Trajectories up to 2050: Insights from a Global Agro-Economic Model Comparison. Agricultural Economics (early view/online) [doi:10.1111/agec.12090]
Müller, C., Robertson, R.D. (2013): Projecting Future Crop Productivity for Global Economic Modeling. Agricultural Economics (early view/online) [doi:10.1111/agec.12088]
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. It includes researchers at institutes including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), among others.