Introduction
How might low-income countries respond to climate change out to 2030?
That is the question addressed in a new report, ‘The Future Climate for Development’, produced by Forum for the Future and supported by the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID). The report explores not only the direct environmental impacts of climate change, but also the social, political, psychological and economic shifts that it may cause, and it aims to put climate change at the fore-front of thinking on development.
It demonstrates clearly that low-income countries cannot and should not have to make a false choice between addressing climate change and development. It shows how the two are fundamentally and inextricably linked, and explains the value of a holistic approach that addresses them together. It is designed to aid long-term thinking, to ensure that decisions made today continue to have positive consequences in the years to come.
The report is designed as a practical tool for anyone who has a stake in the future of low-income countries, including NGOs, businesses, policy-makers and low-income country governments. It contains a ‘horizon scan’, which examines the key issues that will affect low-income countries over the next 20 years, and four scenarios, which explore how these issues may play out in different ways, highlighting challenges and opportunities. It also outlines seven key implications for development agencies and other organisations working in low-income countries.
Here, ThinktoSustain is reproducing the Executive Summary of the report.
Executive Summary
Low-income countries often get overlooked in discussions about climate change. Despite the fact that they are affected first and worst – and have done least to cause the problem – comparatively, little attention has been paid to how climate change will affect the development of states which are home to over a billion people around the world. This is starting to change – but not fast enough.
The central message of this report is that successful development must take climate change into account. It has been supported by the UK Government’s Department for International Development (DFID) to help facilitate a holistic approach to development, which looks to the long term. The work, led by independent sustainability experts Forum for the Future, draws on extensive research, the expertise of a high-level steering group, and the opinions of more than 100 development experts from all over the world, including development professionals, government officials, business leaders, entrepreneurs and independent thinkers.
As our climate changes over the next 20 years, the probability is very high that temperatures will rise, the frequency of storms will increase, and rainfall patterns will shift. Ecosystems will be disrupted, ice-caps and glaciers will continue to melt and sea levels will rise. We may or may not reach tipping points within that time-frame, beyond which change becomes irreversible and much less predictable. Either way, climate change impacts will transform low-income countries, with significant social, economic and political repercussions.
It is, therefore, vital that development in low-income countries becomes ‘climate-resilient’ (1). Without this, there is a significant risk that investment made today could be undermined by climate change impacts in the future. Furthermore, relying on carbon-intensive development today (such as coal-fired power stations) could well mean a lack of efficiency and competitiveness in the long term, if the world’s economy becomes a low-carbon one, as eventually it must.
There is also a huge opportunity agenda to address. Low-carbon, ‘climate-resilient’ development could position low-income countries well in the future global economy. Addressing climate change can complement and reinforce other development goals, such as poverty reduction, health improvement and education. Identifying the ‘win-win’ opportunities is crucial: for example, how a low-carbon city can be designed so that it also improves the health of its citizens; or how climate-friendly business start-ups can generate wealth in low-income communities.
One thing is clear: low-income countries cannot and should not have to make a false choice between addressing climate change and development. This report shows how the two are fundamentally and inextricably linked, and demonstrates the value of a holistic approach that addresses them together.
‘The Future Climate for Development’ is designed for anyone who has a stake in the future of low-income countries, including development organizations and other non-governmental organizations (NGOs), businesses, policy-makers and low-income country governments. It is a practical tool to aid long-term, holistic thinking, to ensure that decisions made today continue to have positive consequences in years to come.
The report contains a ‘horizon scan’, which examines key issues that will affect low-income countries over the next 20 years, and four scenarios, which explore how these issues may play out in different ways, highlighting the challenges and opportunities low-income countries may face in a climate-changing world. The horizon scan and scenarios can be used to:
- ‘future-proof’ current strategies, and prioritize areas for work;
- generate new ideas for future strategy or policy;
- look for opportunities for collaborative working; and
- create a vision of a preferred future.
There are more details on how to use the scenarios. There is also a range of supporting materials available to download from the website, at:
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/project/low-income-countries-2030/overview.
